Default prediction
For: risk managers, senior credit, and model-risk stakeholders.
Not for: loan officers doing daily approve/reject (use applications and approvals).
In Decision PRO: Default prediction (menu access is role-gated; if you do not see it, that is often intentional).
What this is
Default prediction helps risk and senior credit interpret probability of default (PD)-style outputs and related vintage or segment views for monitoring and committee packs. It is not the same screen as origination credit scoring for every bank process.
Why it matters to the bank
- Gives a forward-looking view of portfolio risk alongside point-in-time scores.
- Supports consistent committee language (as-of date, model version, segment).
- Helps separate “should we book this application?” from “how is this book behaving?”
Who typically uses it
Risk, senior credit, analysts, and read-only oversight roles-not usually loan officers on the default-prediction menu family. Exact access is set by your administrator.
What you read on the page
- As-of date for the estimate.
- Model or scorecard version (when displayed).
- Segments (product, region, rating band) your deployment supports.
What you do
- Choose the scope your SOP allows.
- Export or capture for committees only under your data handling policy.
- If numbers conflict with application detail scores, escalate via your model risk process-both may be valid at different stages.
When to escalate
- Sudden jumps without a known data or model change.
- Segment results that contradict collections or delinquency trends your bank already trusts.
- Any customer-facing use of PD numbers not approved by policy.
Next: Dynamic pricing · Partner diligence: AIS risk monitoring